The ouster of Alexander Lukashenko could be the “black swan” that would start a new campaign of violence or even a liberation revolution in the Russian-dominated IV countries.
16.5. 21:00
Russia’s autocratic President Vladimir Putin hosted a Red Square military parade on 9 May, contrary to Putin’s wishes.
The parade became a great display of Russian power neither in the military sense nor in the symbolic level of influencing information.
Instead, some of the parade’s photographs will be consigned to the history books, which may soon be viewed with fresh eyes.
Beside Putin at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, leaders of at least six Ivy League countries were seen, brought by the Kremlin to Moscow in a show of unity. There was something surprisingly similar, even ominous, to the air of pause among the ivy leaders marching toward the monument with their heads bowed like Soviet leaders of Leonid Brezhnev’s time.
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Almost all leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States did not jump to Putin’s side happily. The brutal war of destruction and subjugation launched by Russia in Ukraine is also a show of Moscow’s power towards other former Soviet republics, even though the party’s rhetoric is still friendly.
For example, Kazakhstan has already had to prepare for the scary picture that Putin may next try to annex “historic Russian lands” from the northern parts of Kazakhstan to Russia.
Aleksandr Lukashenka’s anguished expression and poor health became a topic of conversation after the Red Square parade. Photo: Gavril Grigorov/AFP
The Red Square parade also surprisingly reflected the deteriorating health of Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for nearly 29 years. It is known that Lukashenka’s illness began even before the day of the victory, but he still arrived as Putin’s guest – that is, he felt that he had no choice but to accept Putin’s invitation.
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We may be witnessing the final death of the Soviet Union.
After the war in Ukraine, it’s easy to forget that Putin’s war is about the former Soviet Union’s desperate attempts to revive it.
If Putin is successful in his intentions, not only will Ukraine be put to the test, but Russia will consolidate its power over the entire territory of the former Soviet Union – with the exception of the Baltic countries that have already joined NATO. .
However, Lukashenka’s illness, inability to work or even sudden death is a hot topic right now and an electrifying atmosphere in all Ivy countries.
Lukashenka’s return could also be the famous “black swan” – that is, a turning point for which we are not prepared, but which completely changes the course of events.
It has been speculated whether Russia will soon send more of its armed forces to Belarus to take control of the entire country. At the very least, it would mean a brutal new campaign of violence, but it is not certain whether the Belarusian military will obey the Kremlin’s orders.
Putin can imagine that the departure of Lukashenka, considered moody, will be beneficial to him and thus Russia will dominate Ukraine through the Northern Front.
However, autocratic systems are such that they can collapse through even a small fracture when the pressure becomes large enough.
If Lukashenka’s regime suddenly ends, and at the same time Ukraine scores a significant victory in the war, it could set off a chain of events that would lead to a wave of liberation revolutions in the Ivy Countries.
In the best-case scenario, the end result will be that the people of Belarus, together with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, break free from Moscow’s power, take back territories occupied by Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and be able to solve Nagorno . -The Karabakh dispute is without Russia’s proxies, and even the process of reform in the Central Asian republics will begin.
We may be witnessing the final death of the Soviet Union.
