Pekka Toveri assesses the prospects and possible direction of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Ukraine’s studio on Tuesday.
17.5. 7:00
The West, Russia and Ukrainians themselves have been waiting for months for Ukraine’s much-hyped retaliatory strike.
Major General E.V.P. And Pekka Toveri (Kok), a current member of parliament, assessed in IS-TV’s Ukraine studios on Tuesday that the counterattack has already “probably begun in a certain sense”. In recent days, Ukraine has advanced in the direction of Bahamut and carried out airstrikes on military targets, for example fuel depots.
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The position should be kept as obscure as possible for the Russians and attack in different directions.
– There are different signals from the military leadership of Ukraine. This game confuses the tables and keeps the Russians thinking. Simultaneously pressure is built up and reconnaissance strikes are carried out. These are all preparations for an attack, says Toveri.
According to the traditional calculation formula, the attacker needed at least three times as many soldiers. Will Ukraine reach such numbers?
– Ukraine needs to be able to concentrate troops locally and quickly in an area that they can attack. That is why the situation should be kept as ambiguous as possible for the Russians and attack in different directions.
Based on the leak, US intelligence has estimated that Ukraine will use 12 brigades, or about 50,000 soldiers, for the attack. My friend thinks the estimate is low.
– I think the full force set aside for the attack is 20-30 brigades.
Pekka Toveri. Photo: Seppo Karki / IS
In what direction can the greatest offensive force of the Ukrainians be directed?
– I think it will go south in the final games. This is much more important territory for Ukraine and cheaper to attack. It is important economically and psychologically, and could be used to deny Russia’s annexation of Crimea or threaten Donbass, Toveri reflects.
However, Russia has built strong fortifications in the direction of Zaporizhia and Mariupol. Eastern Ukraine could be attacked as well, but Russia would be easier to maintain as we would be closer to the countries actual border.
– It may very well be that we attack in the direction of Donbass and when success is achieved we go deeper, but I think the main goal is in the direction to the south.
Ukrainian soldiers photographed in Bahamut on 11 May. Photo: RFE/RL/SERHII NUZHNENKO/Reuters
Britain has recently given Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of 250 kilometers to Ukraine. There are rumors that Ukraine has already hit Luhansk with such a missile.
How is Storm Shadow relevant to Counterattack?
– This gives Ukraine some obvious advantages – the border is large and it is difficult to intercept. The missile uses GPS, terrain radar and a heat-seeking head. It also has some vanishing properties, so it has a better chance of hitting the target.
The characteristics of the Storm Shadow missile make it a very useful weapon for Ukraine. Photo: Cpl Craig Fryer RAF
Read more: Britain gives a big blow to Ukraine – it can attack important targets of Crimean peninsula
According to Tovar, effective weapons should be used with caution.
– There are not many of these, so you should use them for valuable goals. The Kershinsalmi bridge is the first to come to mind. Toveri stated that an attack on the bridge would make it practically impossible to retain Crimea.
According to comrades, Russia has already “learned to live” with the HIMARS rocket launchers used by Ukraine, but with the Storm Shadow, Ukraine is also capable of striking in depth. Along with the Kerch Strait bridge, for example, the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s main base in Sevastopol could be a potential attack target.
US military intelligence has estimated, based on leaked documents, that even if the counteroffensive is successful, the war is unlikely to end this year. What is the target of the attack?
– I think the most important goal of the Ukrainians is to capture Southern Rantama. That’s already a lot, Toveri says.
– Even in a successful attack, soldiers get tired and losses occur. This last decline was also observed – in the fall, Ukraine was able to seize a certain territory in Kherson and Kharkiv, but then the forces ran out.
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I believe that Putin is ready to sacrifice tens, even hundreds of thousands of reservists.
Comrade does not believe that Ukraine will be able to recapture all the occupied territories, including the Crimean peninsula, with one counterattack.
– If they also take control of most of the southern coastal lands and cut off the Crimean isthmus, this is already a big deal.
Even a successful counterattack would not necessarily bring Russia to the negotiating table – even if the keeping of Crimea would become significantly more difficult.
– I believe that Putin is ready to sacrifice tens, even hundreds of thousands of reservists, tovri.
