Tuesday, October 3, 2023

This is now known about the midsummer season – Juha Föhr: Everything points to one thing


The coming week is expected to be warmer than normal.

Although the past few days have been cloudy, rainy and cool, summer is already fast approaching. Warm weather is expected to return to the country as soon as the weekend. Next week could also be the first warm day of the year.

This possibility is increasing day by day. “I think the heat limit will be exceeded somewhere in Finland next week,” meteorologist Tuukka Kärenen of the Meteorological Institute told Ilta-Sanoam on Tuesday.

It may be hot for several weeks, but will the hot period continue until mid-summer?

Read more: Summer in Finland too! heat wave lasts for weeks

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF published a new monthly forecast on Monday. According to the forecast, the end of May in Finland will be markedly warmer than average weather, which will continue till the beginning of June.

Still, nothing can be said for sure about the upcoming midsummer season. Even if June is otherwise warm, temperatures on individual days can vary greatly from the average. Large fluctuations are normal for Finnish weather.

A violent storm struck Oulu on the evening and night of Midsummer's Day in 2019.

A violent storm struck Oulu on the evening and night of Midsummer’s Day in 2019. Photo: Ville Honkonen

On Midsummer's Eve, Helsinki enjoyed summer in 2019.

On the eve of mid-summer, Helsinki enjoyed a warm summer in 2019. Photo: Aku Hairinan / Lehtikuva

Some indication of the end of June can be obtained from the ECMWF’s June-August forecast, which it published in early May. According to the weather forecast, southern parts of Finland will be 0-1°C warmer than average, and central parts will be 0-0.5°C warmer.

– The weather forecast also shows the likelihood of a period of warm and sunny weather, particularly over the southern half of Finland, Forka meteorologist Joanna Rinne said at the time.

Fourca meteorologist Juha Fohr says it is still not worth drawing too far-reaching conclusions about midsummer weather, even if long-term forecasts suggest something.

– The big season is basically on the warm side and by no means on the cold side. However, you have to remember that longer range forecasts can accommodate all kinds of individual days.

A major weather event means, for example, weather phenomena affecting the whole of European climates, such as weather fronts, air masses and large areas of high and low pressure.

It is a different matter to say what the weather will be, than to say it at ten o’clock in the evening on Midsummer’s Eve.

Beach volleyball was played in Helsinki on Midsummer's Day in 2020.

Beach volleyball was played in Helsinki on Midsummer’s Day in 2020. Photo: Heikki Soukoma / Lehtikuva

In Himos, Jamsa, Midsummer was celebrated in 2015 during the rainy season.

Himos, in Jamsa, was celebrated during the Midsummer rainy season in 2015. Photo: Cut Gourds

Föhr reminds that Midsummer covers two days. So even if the weather is otherwise warm during the week, it can be completely different at midsummer.

– however, it can be said that everything points to the fact that we are on the hot side.

He’s a reminder that midsummer is more than a month away.

As far as these predictions are concerned, all kinds of things can happen in a month.

Midsummer's Eve 2020 was celebrated in sunny weather in Kuopio.

Midsummer’s Eve 2020 was celebrated in sunny weather in Kuopio. Photo: Timo Hartikainen / Lehtikuva

midsummer festival

Midsummer Festival Photo: Heikki Saukkomaa / Lehtikuva

And what do statistics say about midsummer weather? In light of data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the likelihood of a heatwave is not high. On the coast, either Midsummer’s Eve or Midsummer’s Day is warm on average every fifth year.

The interior parts of the country are slightly more prone to heatwaves: The mercury rises above 25 degrees every four years, on average. In Lapland, it warms only every tenth midsummer.

According to data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the chance of rain in midsummer is already as high as in July, the rainiest month in Finland. According to statistics, on average every second or every third midsummer is dusty and sunny.

Almost scorching hot midday in Helsinki in 2022.

Almost a warm midsummer evening in Helsinki in 2022. Photo: Sari Gustafsson

Dark clouds over Helsinki on Midsummer's Day 2019.

Dark clouds over Helsinki on Midsummer’s Day 2019. Photo: Vesa Moilainen / Lehtikuva

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